Heart Wealth Insights – July 2026 Newsletter
Heart Wealth Insights - Navigating Markets Together • Building Legacies That Matter
Written by: April Dorey Hartwig; Publisher: Heart Wealth Management Group of Raymond James Ltd.
We hope this finds you enjoying the best of a Canadian summer — long evenings, warm water, and hopefully a little time away from the headlines. Because the headlines have certainly been busy! A flare-up in the Middle East that has since de-escalated, ongoing tariff uncertainty, and a steady stream of economic data have given markets plenty to digest. And yet, through it all, Canadian markets sit near record highs.
That contrast — strong portfolios, unsettled news — is exactly why mid-year is the right moment to check the plan, not the news. Here is where things stand at the halfway mark of 2026, and a few planning items worth your attention this summer.
Mid-Year Market Snapshot
Despite everything the first half threw at investors, results have been solid — particularly here at home:
| Indicator | As of June 30, 2026 |
|---|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 34,857 — up 11.2% (total return) year-to-date; up 32.9% over one year |
| S&P 500 (in Canadian dollars) | Up 14.1% year-to-date |
| Bank of Canada rate | 2.25% — on hold since October 2025 |
| Canada 10-year bond yield | 3.38% |
| Inflation (May, y/y) | 3.23% — back above the Bank of Canada's 2% target |
| Canadian dollar | $0.70 USD |
What led the way: Canadian financials (up 23.2% year-to-date), energy (up 23.6%), and utilities (up 17.8%) have carried the TSX. Copper has continued its strong run, up 32.9% over the past year, and while gold has pulled back from its highs, it remains up 22.5% over twelve months — a reminder of why we hold real assets through full cycles, not just good quarters.
A dose of reality: Here at home, the economic picture beneath the market is more mixed. Canada's first-quarter GDP was slightly negative, unemployment sits at 6.6%, and inflation has crept back above the Bank of Canada's target. The US economy, by contrast, remains resilient — Raymond James expects US growth of 2.4% this year, supported by AI and infrastructure investment. Strongmarkets and a softer domestic economy can coexist, but it is not a combination that rewards complacency.
What this means for your portfolio
When markets rise this much, portfolios drift — even when you change nothing. An allocation that was balanced in January may be carrying meaningfully more equity risk today, simply because equities have done so well.
So rather than tell you we are "staying disciplined," here is what that actually looks like over the summer: trimming equity positions that have run well past their targets — financials and energy in particular — topping up the assets those gains left under-weighted, confirming retirement income draws remain sustainable at current levels, and making sure any cash you hold is actually earning a competitive rate rather than sitting idle.
To be clear, none of this is a bearish call. Raymond James remains constructive on equities, with corporate earnings delivering six straight quarters of double-digit growth. Rebalancing simply keeps your risk at the level you chose — rather than the level a strong market chose for you.
